The Mesoamerican Reef (MAR) is one of the most important and diverse marine ecosystems on Earth, yet it is increasingly affected by land-based and declining seawater quality. Although the influence of nutrient enrichment and runoff on reef ecosystems has been widely recognized, few studies have directly evaluated how multiple in-situ water quality parameters are associated with reef health metrics at a regional scale. Here, we assessed relationships between field-measured water quality variables (salinity, temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, nutrient concentrations, and distance to shore) and reef health indicators (live coral cover, turf algae and fleshy macroalgae cover, and fish species biomass) across the Mesoamerican Reef using regional in-situ monitoring data and 2021 AGRRA reef surveys. Linear models and generalized additive models were used to identify the best-supported predictor sets for each response variable. Globally, the results indicate that reef metrics are best determined by multiple interacting environmental gradients, rather than by a single effect. While the results should be interpreted with caution given the limited temporal extent and uneven spatial representation of some gradients, they demonstrate the value of integrating direct water quality monitoring with reef health assessments to improve ecological understanding and inform targeted management.
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