Space and time patterns of demersal species in response to multifaceted climate change metrics across the Mediterranean Sea

Climate change is reshaping marine biodiversity worldwide by altering the spatial distribution of species. In the Mediterranean Sea, these responses are particularly complex due to the basin’s strong environmental gradients, semi-enclosed configuration, and exposure to multiple anthropogenic pressures. This study investigates spatio-temporal patterns of demersal species redistribution across the Mediterranean Sea in response to multiple dimensions of climate change. Rather than focusing on a single climatic driver, it considers chronic warming, acute thermal extremes, and seasonal changes to better capture the multifaceted nature of climate exposure. The findings show that redistribution responses were geographically heterogeneous and did not consistently follow expected poleward or deepward trajectories. A clear north–south contrast emerged around the 40°N latitude line, with northern subregions generally showing northward shifts, while southern subregions tended to shift southward. Seasonal climate metrics were also important, particularly for depth redistribution, suggesting that shifts in the timing of thermal conditions may influence bathymetric responses. These patterns highlight the difficulty of generalising climate-driven redistribution for demersal species across the Mediterranean basin. Overall, this study contributes to a broader understanding of climate-driven biodiversity redistribution and emphasizes the need for regionally explicit conservation and management strategies.