Kelps are essential to marine ecosystems, providing ecosystem services such as carbon removal and coastal protection. Previous assessments in Southeast England have identified kelp decline through field-based methods. The objective of this study is to quantify changes in kelp abundance in Southeast England using aerial imagery from the Channel Coast Observatory and pixel-based classification, and to investigate environmental drivers behind these trends. It was hypothesised that kelp decline is driven by extreme climate events, including marine heatwaves (MHWs) and storms, but could be mitigated by Marine Cold spells (MCSs). Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Maximum Entropy (MaxENt) models were tested on both true colour and false colour infrared (FCIR) imagery. The SVM FCIR model (Kappa = 0.78) and MaxEnt FCIR model (Kappa = 0.73) performed best. Results showed a decline in kelp from 2013 to 2016, with signs of recovery from 2020 to 2022. Environmental data, including sea surface temperature and wave height, were analysed to identify potential drivers. Storm events, MHWs, and MCSs likely influenced patterns found, though no single factor consistently explained trends in kelp abundance. In conclusion, this study highlights the value of remote sensing and long-term data for monitoring and managing kelp ecosystems under climate change.
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