As sentinel species, penguins reflect a wide range of changes occurring in their ecosystems. Isla de los Estados in Argentina, provides nesting habitat for Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) and the largest colony of the vulnerable Southern Rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome). To address knowledge gaps regarding stressors impacting these species during the breeding season, we initiated a pioneering Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) for penguins in Isla de los Estados, combining qualitative expert opinion and quantitative analysis of penguin at-sea distribution with six anthropogenic and climate-driven stressors. Our analyses revealed species-specific density hotspots, with Magellanic penguins using areas of higher oceanographic variations and maritime traffic overlap, while both species showed minimal interaction with fisheries. Additionally, experts identified five key pressures for penguins breeding on the island: heavy metals pollution, plastic pollution, disease outbreaks, harmful algal blooms, and climate change. This risk assessment accentuates the need for further research into stressors with limited data available and the importance of evaluating species’ sensitivity to chemical stressors and stochastic events. The species-specific exposure reinforces the necessity of tailored assessments. Addressing these gaps will enable for the completion of the ERA's Risk Analysis phase, facilitating informed decisions for the long-term conservation of Magellanic and Rockhopper penguins.
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