Transport processes have a significant impact on the dynamics of ichthyoplankton, as they primarily dictate their movement within the system and therefore the environmental conditions they encounter. Individual-based models (IBMs) in particular have been successfully used in studies providing insight into the early life history dynamics (HERMANN et al., 1996; Letcher et al., 1996; Miller, 2007). Atlantic mackerel is one of the most widespread and commercially important species. Over the years, there has been great variability in the abundance and distribution of spawning mackerel (Jansen et al., 2021). This study used an IBM to simulate the drift and growth of mackerel eggs and larvae in the northeast Atlantic to evaluate the possible consequences of the northward expansion of the mackerel spawning distribution for larval dynamics. Through the simulation two areas of high abundance were identified over the Porcupine Bank and along the shelf edge of the Celtic Sea. The degree of the northward particle transport could not be established due to the limited coverage of the hydrodynamic model. In terms of growth, particles were consistently larger as the spawning season progressed. Particles west of Scotland consistently reached smaller sizes compared to the other areas. No conclusive evidence was found of inter-annual variability in growth rates. Additionally, the correlation between the modelled lengths and field data observations from the Groundfish survey was very weak.
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