Future trajectories of marine resources of the Bay of Biscay marine ecosystem under the impacts of fishing and climate change

Student: 
Roger Amate López-Sivera

A temporally dynamic food web model was used to assess future ecological changes in the Bay of Biscay. The area is under high fishing pressure and together with climate change it is experiencing growing environmental variations. I assessed, the impacts of sea temperature and primary production following IPCC projections, the effect of fishing below, above, and at sustainable levels on selected target species, and the combination of both to evaluate their cumulative effects. Results show that climate change would increase the stress in the ecosystem, with significant changes in the biomass of some species while fishing scenarios showed potential benefits of fishing reductions. In addition, cumulative scenarios suggest that the beneficial effects of fishing at sustainable levels may be dampened by the effects of climate change. These results reassert the importance of managing fisheries from a more holistic perspective in which stressors other than fishing should be included. Results support the need to reduce local stressors such as fishing to enhance ecosystem resilience against climate change, and the requirement of further research to identify trade-offs, synergies, and potential species adaptations in the different future scenarios.