Climate change is driving the redistribution of marine biota, leading to altered community structure with associated impacts on ecosystem functioning. Changes in species richness and community composition of key habitat-forming organisms, such as cold-water corals (CWCs), can impact all associated species and ecosystem services. Baseline information and assessments on future biodiversity patterns are crucial to prioritize conservation efforts. By using stacked SDMs (Species Distribtuon Modelling) we provide the first global estimate of distributional patterns (species richness, community turnover, range shifts, regions of climate refugia) of CWCs for present-day conditions and for the future under contrasting climate change scenarios. Models were developed for 310 species, with 9 selected environmental predictors, revealing the importance of temperature and oxygen for the global distribution of CWCs. We predicted current centres of species richness in the North Atlantic and South Pacific. Projections for CWC responses to climate change showed broad range shift towards higher latitudes and deeper waters, as well as widespread community turnover, most notable under the higher emission scenario. Climate refugial sites are projected to overlap with current biodiversity hotspots and areas less affected by community turnover. Furthermore, our results suggest that climate change mitigation strategies, may reduce potential biodiversity changes and consequential risks.
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